On a house that has sat 90 days, buyers do one of two things: walk away assuming something is wrong with it, or fire off a random lowball with nothing behind it and watch the seller stop replying. He builds the number off the comps instead, deliberately a little under what the house is worth, so the counter lands exactly at value.
The video is about the listing that has been sitting 60 to 90 days, which he calls one of the best opportunities a buyer will find. He says almost everybody blows it. They walk away because something must be wrong with it, or they throw out a random lowball number with nothing behind it, the seller gets insulted, and the whole thing dies right there.
Before picking a number he reads the seller. How long it has sat. How many price cuts — a seller who has already cut twice has told you they know they are overpriced. Whether the home is vacant, because a vacant house is costing them a second mortgage, taxes, insurance and upkeep every month. And why it is on the market at all: relocation, divorce, an estate sale, they already bought another house.
Then the arithmetic, using his own example. They are asking 764,000. The comps say the home is worth 700,000. He comes in at 685,000 or 690,000 with the comps attached, so there is room to meet in the middle and still land at or under true value. If they counter him up to 700, he is at value and he is done. In his words: "Negotiate up from below value and stop at value."
The discipline is the second half. What you do not do, he says, is offer 700 and let them talk you up to 720 because you got emotional and wanted the house. And when a seller physically cannot go below a number, he takes the value somewhere else: closing cost credits, a seller-funded rate buy-down, repair credits after the inspection, or terms like a rent-back, a longer escrow or a fast close.
“Negotiate up from below value and stop at value.”
Your buyer's instinct on a stale listing is a percentage off the ask, and a percentage off the ask has nothing to do with what the house is worth. It also hands the seller an easy out, because a round number can be rejected without anyone ever opening the comps.
Anchoring under value with the comps attached changes what the seller is arguing with. They are no longer testing your buyer's nerve, they are arguing with evidence, and the ceiling is set before anybody gets emotional. The offer you write is also the moment you decide the walk-away number, which is the part buyers skip.