You have been treating your farm's missing inventory as a rate problem, waiting for a number that unlocks the block. In several states the bigger lock is the tax bill, and it makes staying put the rational choice no matter where rates go.
The segment starts with affordability. Housing and child care together consume more than half of the typical US family's income, and in Los Angeles the typical family would have to spend 97 percent of income on the two combined, leaving 3 percent for everything else.
Then she turns to why the larger homes those families need never come up for sale. She points to a Substack piece arguing that low property taxes freeze young people out of the economy, which cites Redfin research she is quoted in showing baby boomers own an outsized share of large homes better suited to young families.
Her explanation is one sentence long: "If you own a three-bedroom home in California, but you're paying taxes like it's a one-bedroom home, there's nothing motivating you to give up that three-bedroom home to move into the one-bedroom home." Under Proposition 13, those owners hold assessments far below the market value of their homes.
The knock-on effect she describes is mechanical. Low holding costs mean fewer people sell, fewer sales mean tighter supply, and tighter supply raises prices. She notes most states have some version of an age-regressive structure, including senior property tax discounts.
“If you own a three-bedroom home in California, but you're paying taxes like it's a one-bedroom home, there's nothing motivating you to give up that three-bedroom home to move into the one-bedroom home.”
This changes who you should be calling and what you say. The long-tenured owner in the big house is not waiting for a better rate, because rates were never the thing holding them. Pitching them on equity or on a lower payment argues against a bill they are not paying.
What moves that household is a life reason — stairs, distance from family, a house that has become work — and the honest version of the conversation includes what their taxes would look like on the next home. Run that number before you make the call, because they will run it the second you leave.