A price reduction feels like a personal failure to a seller, and to most agents, so it gets delayed until the listing is stale enough to make it expensive. The long-run base rate says roughly a third of all homes reduce before they sell, which makes the cut a normal step rather than a verdict.
A housing analyst publishes a weekly read on the same handful of indicators, and the price-cut section carries the line worth keeping: "Typically, about one-third of homes see price reductions before they sell, reflecting the housing market’s dynamic nature."
Against that baseline, here is where the market sits. Last week's price-cut percentage was 42.10 percent, against 42 percent in the same week last year. Mortgage rates were near 6.81 percent.
The rest of the week's numbers say slowing, not breaking. New listings came in at 66,874 against 63,762 a year ago. Inventory rose from 874,784 to 879,764, up 2.21 percent year over year, while the same week last year inventory actually fell as rates were dropping.
He also notes his own 2026 forecast of a 0.62 percent national home-price decline may be hard to hit, since most price indexes are showing growth between 1 and 2 percent — though rising rates, rising inventory and rising price cuts could still get him there.
“Typically, about one-third of homes see price reductions before they sell, reflecting the housing market’s dynamic nature.”
The reason a reduction conversation goes badly is that the seller thinks it is a statement about their house. Two numbers change that: a third of homes reduce in a normal market, and right now it is running above four in ten. That reframes the cut as the ordinary path most sellers take, which is the truth.
Say it at the listing appointment, not at day sixty. A seller who agreed in advance that a reduction is a normal step is a completely different conversation than a seller hearing it for the first time after four weeks of silence.